The Major Markets ended the week mixed as economics returned to the forefront of the markets. Only the Nasdaq managed to close in positive territory while the other four indices closed lower.

The week opened with the release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey which saw an increase in the General Activity Index. The reading slightly beat expectations but fell from August’s rebound from three-year lows.

The market opened higher again on Tuesday but fell sharply after September’s ISM Manufacturing Index reported 47.8 which missed the breakeven estimates of 50. This marked the lowest result since June of 2009 and the second consecutive month of contraction for the index.

The losses continued on Wednesday after the ADP Employment Report showed that only 135,000 jobs were created in September. This caused some analysts to greatly reduce expectations going into Friday’s BLS Employment Report.

Thursday’s release of the ISM Non-manufacturing Index also missed expectations with the lowest reading in three years. However, the result managed to remain in growth territory.

The market began a strong turnaround shortly thereafter as the odds for an October rate cut surged. The probability of a rate cut to the 150 – 175 basis point range rose to 88.7% Thursday before ending at 77% on Friday.

These odds dropped somewhat after Friday’s gains on the back of mixed results from the BLS Employment Report. September nonfarm payrolls rose 136,000, which was short of the 145,000 expected. However, August’s reading was revised sharply higher from 130,000 to 168,000, reflecting a net gain that more than made up for the September shortfall. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate fell to 3.5%, the lowest since December of 1969. A fact that the President jumped on in the midst of the ongoing Impeachment saga.


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